Population vs. Sample

Why population coverage closes the inference gap

In FCA matters, opposing experts routinely extrapolate from a small statistical sample to assert system-wide damages. The platform examines all 1,455,400 claims, replacing parametric estimates with the actual distribution.

Full Population Result
$132.4M

Underpayment across all 1,455,400 claims

100% — every claim examined
$132,415,840
Extrapolated Estimate (Sample)
$196.3M

Based on n = 384 claims, scaled to population

95% CI: $161.4M – $231.5M
$196,280,000
Variance
+$63.9M

Sampling extrapolation overstates damages

48.2% inflation
$63,864,160
Core Comparison

Population vs. Statistical Sample

When opposing experts extrapolate from a sample, this is what they miss.

Full Population Analysis100% coverage
$132,415,840
1,455,400 claims examined
Sample Extrapolationn = 384
$196,280,000
$161.4M$231.5M (95% CI)
Variance vs. Population

Sampling extrapolation overstates damages by $63,864,160 (48.2%).

+$63.9M
Extrapolation error
Distribution

Underpayment Distribution

Histogram across the full population — visually demonstrates why averages mislead.

Stratification

Population Stratification

Population-level evidence by location, payer, and year — used to rebut sampling methodology.

By Location

  • Cedar Valley Medical$23.0M

    234,120 claims

  • Northgate Surgical$28.3M

    173,760 claims

  • Pacific Crest ER$15.4M

    250,860 claims

  • Riverside Regional$19.6M

    197,180 claims

  • Oak Ridge Health$16.8M

    161,790 claims

  • Summit Point Hospital$13.1M

    136,420 claims

  • Lakeside Medical Center$10.5M

    168,610 claims

  • Westfield Surgical$5.7M

    132,660 claims

By Payer

  • Meridian Health Plan$33.1M

    297,950 claims

  • Coastline PPO$25.1M

    247,820 claims

  • Keystone National$19.2M

    214,825 claims

  • Cascade Mutual$18.2M

    182,860 claims

  • Liberty Bell Health$14.9M

    153,990 claims

  • Summit Benefits$12.5M

    136,150 claims

  • Heartland Assurance$7.1M

    118,690 claims

  • Beacon Hill Plans$2.3M

    103,115 claims

By Year

  • 2020$9.5M

    145,000 claims

  • 2021$14.2M

    198,000 claims

  • 2022$22.8M

    285,000 claims

  • 2023$32.4M

    342,000 claims

  • 2024$36.0M

    358,400 claims

  • 2025$17.5M

    127,000 claims

Verdict Consulting Group · Population analytics for litigation

All values shown are demo data

Demo Data